Global Warming Level for CMIP6 Downscaled Climate Projections (10km) of Mean and Extreme Climate Indices from the Queensland Future Climate Science Program for Australia 

The dataset includes mean and extreme climate indices for Australia for 15 downscaled climate simulations, based on a global warming level framework, and was developed by the Queensland Future Climate Science Program. CMIP6 Global Climate Models were dynamically downscaled to a 10km resolution over Australia using the CCAM model. Based on the SSP370 climate change scenario, a 20-year average around global warming levels of 1.2, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3 and 4 degrees above the pre-industrial baseline was calculated. For each global warming level, this dataset provides mean climate, extremes (rainfall and temperature), heatwaves, Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) and drought and wetness (based on SPI and SPEI) for 15 individual climate simulations. The dataset spans the entire Australian continent.
 

We at TERN acknowledge the Traditional Owners and Custodians throughout Australia, New Zealand and all nations. We honour their profound connections to land, water, biodiversity and culture and pay our respects to their Elders past, present and emerging. The Queensland Future Climate Projections 2 dataset (QldFCP-2) was produced by the Queensland Future Climate Science Program, which aims to support climate adaptation and natural disasters preparedness and was funded by the Queensland Government, Australia (dataset DOI: https://doi.org/10.25914/8fve-1910). Citation: Chapman S, Syktus J, Trancoso R, Thatcher M, Toombs N, Wong K K-H, Takbash A, 2023. Earth's Future. Evaluation of dynamically downscaled CMIP6-CCAM models over Australia.
 

To provide climatologies for 1.2, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3 and 4 degrees of global warming that can be used for various analyses of climate change.
 

The Queensland Future Climate Science Program dynamically downscaled CMIP6 Global Climate Models to a 10km resolution using CCAM, creating 15 simulations for the SSP370 scenario (https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003548). Refer to table S1 in the supplementary material for GWL data for a list of all metrics and their definitions. Details for the calculation of mean and extreme climate indices are available here: https://longpaddock.qld.gov.au/qld-future-climate/factsheets. Global Warming Levels (GWLs) were based on the SSP3-7.0 scenario. GWLs were calculated by identifying the years in which each climate model simulation reached the selected warming thresholds (1.2, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, or 4). Only the SSP3-7.0 scenario was used, as models forced by lower-emissions scenarios do not reach the higher GWLs. The derivation followed the methodology of Tebaldi et al. (2021), in which an 11-year running average of global surface temperature is used to determine when a GWL is reached. GWLs were calculated relative to a 1995–2014 baseline, with an additional offset of 0.85 °C applied to account for warming since pre-industrial levels. For each GWL, a 20-year time slice was extracted, centred on the target warming level and spanning from 9 years before to 10 years after the midpoint. Because climate models warm at different rates, not all models reach the higher GWL thresholds, and so the results for 4 degrees of warming represent a smaller set of models than for the other GWLs. Refer to table S2 in the supplementary material for GWL data for details on the GWL thresholds and their equivalent 20-year time slices for each model.